Through the analysis of the market situation and the understanding of the enterprise, the Heilongjiang Forest Industry Bureau has seven reasons for the poor sales of timber in the northeast forest area:
First, due to the influence of national real estate control policies, in 2012, housing prices in most parts of China were in a state of stagflation. Developers have reduced the scale of real estate development and reduced the use of wood. After the 18th National Congress, the state successively introduced a new policy to suppress the real estate, making the market situation confusing. The introduction of the National Five Articles has made the recent second-hand housing market active. The overall price increase of the recent housing prices has been nearly the highest in three years. The impact on the first-hand housing market will gradually appear after the detailed announcement. Changes in the real estate market and its impact have not yet been transmitted to the timber market.
Second, the domestic and international economic situation has not yet bottomed out, and the demand for wood in downstream furniture and home improvement industries has continued to decline. Affected by the reduction in domestic timber demand, timber distribution centers such as Zhangjiagang, Manzhouli, Suifenhe and other timber ports in Guangdong Yuzhu International Wood Market have a large inventory backlog. The situation of oversupply is still difficult to break through.
Third, it is affected by the increase in foreign timber imports. The first is the reduction in Russian timber sales. At present, Manchuria and Suifenhe Ports have accumulated a large amount of imported timber, and the quality and price are low. Secondly, although Russian timber imports still rank first, with the increasing import channels of timber in China, the pattern of timber imports has changed quietly. The influx of New Zealand timber and North American timber has made it the second largest in China. Timber import channels. Although New Zealand radiata pine and North American Douglas fir are not as good as Russian wood, they have replaced traditional larch, scotch pine, birch and poplar in many fields due to their low price, large diameter and abundant supply. And other species. It is understood that since the first half of 2011, China's imports of wood from New Zealand, North America and other countries have been showing strong growth. Moreover, there has been a trend of shifting from the import of land ports to sea shipments. Importing timber through sea has not only low freight rates, but also has a huge amount of transportation and low cost, so it has a strong market competitive advantage in price.
Fourth, it is affected by low-priced wood in other surrounding forest areas. According to the survey, the price of timber in the local forestry bureau is far lower than the price in our forest area.
Fifth, due to the downturn in the timber market in 2012, the mentality of the industry is more confused. Under this circumstance, the downstream merchants are more inclined to choose the view, and the operation is more cautious and conservative. This creates a vicious circle: the worse the market, the less the downstream merchants are in stock. The less you enter the goods, the worse the market sales will be.
Sixth, it is affected by the doubled cost pressure of the wood processing industry. At present, the cost of wood processing is increasing. The country of production is developing a local economy, and it is constantly raising higher export requirements and raising the price of wood. The accumulation of layers and the high profits of wood will never return. A 5-10% profit point will become the mainstream of the market.
Seventh, exports have been repeatedly affected by barriers, international trade protection and trade frictions have intensified.
After the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008, the United States introduced the revision of the Lacey Act on environmental protection to combat illegal timber harvesting and trade, raising the threshold for export of forest products to the United States. On May 22, 2008, the amendment of the US Lacey Act came into effect. The amendment of the Lacey Act requires the declaration of imported wood products, requiring the source of wood raw materials to be legal, not only applicable to relevant forestry laws in the United States, but also extending the laws and regulations of foreign countries. Jurisdiction, for violations of the Lacey Act amendments, will be subject to civil and criminal penalties.
From 2009 to 2012, China's timber imports increased significantly, mainly for furniture manufacturing, construction and decoration, and these wood products were exported to Europe and the United States. The implementation of the amendment to the Lacey Act has enabled European and American countries to control not only wooden products but also raw materials. The range of raw materials for furniture and wood products companies has narrowed. Some export-oriented furniture companies have to choose timber exported from countries such as North America and Australia, and participate in chain of custody certification, which has led to a further increase in raw material costs. European and American countries have adopted the law to make further profits in the securities industry chain through the use of timber legality certification, and the domestic timber exports have increased significantly.
The EU's long-established "Wood and Wood Products Regulations and New Environmental Design Directives" will be enforced in all EU member states starting March 3. As a result, the threshold for the export of domestic wood furniture and wood products to the EU will be further lifted. high. Many small and medium-sized furniture manufacturers have been suffering from a decline in overseas orders and the appreciation of the renminbi, which has made the profits of the small and sloppy. The new regulations have made the original furniture export enterprises worse, and many enterprises choose to abandon the EU market to move to the domestic market or open up other markets.
The export of wood products was blocked, and the processing enterprises in the forest areas could not get foreign orders, which directly affected the sales of high-quality wood in the province.
After entering 2013, the domestic timber market will be more cautious in the context of the complexity and uncertainty of the global economic environment. Market confidence and expectations are unstable, and the timber market in the forest area will be in the process of seeking new support. In the environment of economic recovery and recovery at home and abroad, due to the lag of the economic operation chain, it is difficult for timber in the forest area to have a strong sales performance in a short period of time, and the price will continue to be sluggish. There will be no big rebound in demand in the near future. The transmission effect of the policy affects the timber market and is expected to improve in the second half of the year.
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